The case for an Executive Vice-President for Future Generations in the next European Commission

In 2024 the EU can extend its founding principle of ‘intergenerational solidarity’ to future citizens

by Elizabeth Dirth

The vision of a thriving, stable, future-fit Europe to pass on to future generations is something everyone can get behind.

Yet, with the start of the next 5-year cycle of the EU institutions on the horizon in 2024, it’s time to ask if the needs of future generations are being met by decisions taken today. And how the respect of the rights of future generations can be better ensured.

The European Parliament elections in June will be followed by the forming of a new European Commission. The Commission, as the EU’s executive arm, is duty-bound to promote the shared interests of the Union and to uphold its treaties. Clearly stated in the treaty is “the promotion...of solidarity between generations”.

This year represents, therefore, a window for reform – a window in which to review the structures and functioning of the Commission and to make sure it can perform its role of pursuing the common interests of present generations – from the youngest to the oldest – but also the interests of generations yet to come.

We need to make sure that the notion of solidarity, which is a founding value of the EU, extends to future generations. The best way to do this, we propose, is with the creation of a dedicated Commissioner portfolio: an Executive Vice-President for Future Generations.

Inconvenient truth

Looking at the current ways of working within institutions, neither policymakers nor political leaders are incentivised to think and act long term. For many of Europe’s current challenges, there is a lack of long-term thinking, forward planning, or strategic investment. Whether this be bigger issues or existential risks like the climate crisis, pandemic preparedness or demographic change, or more specific issues like outdated infrastructure or the roll-out of digitalisation. The inconvenient truth is that short-term interests normally win-out.

To take the issue of intergenerational socio-economic deprivation as an illustration. Europe continues to be blighted by poverty at both an individual and regional level, and it is proven that children who grow up in poverty are more likely to face poverty as adults. Yet, his challenge is often framed as being about the present – there is a lack of attention to the structural challenges that perpetuate inequality from one generation to the next.  A much longer-term perspective is needed to really make a difference to intergenerational poverty.

Priorities

So what would a European Commission Vice President for Future Generations actually do?

This new Commissioner would be entrusted to instill a far-future perspective throughout the Commission’s work, equally when proposing new policies, and when ensuring their enforcement.

We envision a remit shaped around three key priorities:

1. Integrating and embedding intergenerational, long-view thinkingThe Commissioner would have the job of making sure that long-term considerations are consistently present in policymaking processes.  This would result in holistic transition plans that bring people along towards the future they imagine.On the one hand, this would mean rigorously embedding the existing strategic foresight work of the Commission into the policy cycle. Since 2019 the present von der Leyen Commission has already made good progress in developing the foresight function – the groundwork is already there. But open questions remain, like: How does strategic foresight feed into the Commission’s annual work plan and budget? How do we better integrate learning from models and scenarios into strategic planning?

   On the other hand, this would also mean developing and implementing new processes. The mandate would also include responsibility for monitoring progress towards a renewed vision of Europe by putting in place indicators and ensuring that resourcing aligns with the vision. This would require utilising socioeconomic and environmental metrics to define and enforce binding political targets as well as to allocate budgetary resources among Member States. Furthermore, this would entail the employment of holistic impact assessment tools by integrating environmental and social indicators into current macroeconomic simulation models used by the Commission.
   
   2. Safeguarding future generations’ interests

   The second priority would be safeguarding the needs of future generations and acting as a conduit for future generations’ interests. This would include regular horizontal scrutiny of policies and investment to ensure they are future-fit.Horizontal scrutiny within the Commission’s policymaking cycle could be inspired by the model of the Lithuanian parliament’s committee for the future, where each piece of legislation goes through the committee and is scrutinized for its long term impact, or follow the model many countries used in embedding scrutiny for the SDGs. Rather than initiating legislation process themselves, the Commissioner would review and scrutinise across all issue areas.

   Future-fitness could also be added to the remit of the Regulatory Scrutiny Board and include reporting on future-fit criteria and country specific recommendations through the European Semester process.   

   Scrutiny and safeguarding can also come through citizens, connecting strongly to the first priority. The Commissioner’s office could receive direct input from citizens concerned about the long-term implication of EU actions and inactions, working in collaboration with the Ombudsperson through a new collaborative process.

   3. Renewing the EU’s vision of the future of Europe

   The Commissioner would be responsible for building bridges between the European institutions and citizens. They would maintain regular dialogue for envisioning a Europe fit for the future, building on the outcomes and learning from the Conference on the Future of Europe to establish more meaningful mechanisms for citizens to participate in the long-term vision of the EU. This would involve the ongoing use of citizen participation processes, such as visioning processes and deliberative mechanisms like citizen assemblies, as well as futuring techniques to ensure citizen engagement with, and support for, a planned transition towards that future.

The good news is that similar guardians of future generations already exist elsewhere and we can see the benefits they bring. Finland, Wales, Uruguay and others places have dedicated future generations bodies. Others, like Canada and the Philippines integrate this into their Sustainable Development bodies.  In fact there is even a network which brings together these bodies – the Network of Institutions and Leaders for Future Generations. Discussions on such a mandate are active at the UN level. So the EU would be joining a growing group of institutions recognising the need to formalise future-fitness in policymaking at a time where this growing movement needs leadership and vision.

The EU has the power to take such a step in 2024. With a new Executive Vice President for Future Generations in the incoming European Commission, the EU can improve the future-fitness of EU policies.

With a dedicated role mandated to safeguard future generations’ interests, the EU can extend its founding principle of intergenerational solidarity to all citizens, including future ones.